Circio Holding ASA (”Circio” or ”the Company”) announced, on the 24th of April 2026, that the fully funded feasibility study with a major global pharmaceutical company, originally entered in November 2025, has advanced from in vitro to in vivo testing. The study evaluates circVec-AAV gene therapy within a CNS indication, is fully funded by the pharmaceutical partner, and contains no downstream rights or obligations on either side.
Analyst Group’s View on the Progression to In Vivo Testing
Analyst Group considers the progression to in vivo testing an important milestone, representing the first technical gating step the project has successfully passed. The decision to advance select circVec candidates into in vivo testing indicates that in vitro performance was sufficient to warrant continued investment by the partner, which Analyst Group regards as a meaningful technical endorsement given the calibre of the counterparty involved. Committing to the more resource-intensive in vivo phase further reflects sustained engagement in the collaboration.
The collaboration is tied to Circio’s previously guided Q4-26 partnered project update, which Analyst Group views as a key value-inflection point in the Company’s near-term pipeline. The data would represent Circio’s first disease-relevant CNS results, broadening platform validation into a tissue where the preclinical dataset has so far been less developed than in heart and eye. The most recent CNS in vivo data point, generated with circVec 2.1, showed ~4x increased expression. By comparison, prior in vivo eye data with circVec 2.0 showed ~7x, while the newer circVec 4.0 construct subsequently delivered up to ~50x in the same tissue, a concrete precedent for the magnitude of improvement that newer generations have produced. Analyst Group therefore sees a credible basis for meaningful improvement when the Q4-26 CNS readout is generated with the newer circVec 3.2/4.0 constructs. The update would also be the first circVec dataset produced jointly with a top-tier pharmaceutical partner, lending external technical credibility beyond Circio’s internal work, and a positive outcome would mark the natural transition from feasibility study into formal licensing discussions.
In Analyst Group’s platform-focused rNPV framework, two AAV-circVec licensing agreements are modelled. The first, linked to CNS and assumed to follow positive CNS PoC data, is modelled at an estimated total deal value of USD 400m. The second, broader agreement is tied to heart or eye indications, where circVec has shown strong preclinical data, with potential indications such as wet AMD, and is modelled at a total deal value of USD 1,500m. Analyst Group considers the present collaboration the most likely originating partnership for the first agreement, conditional on positive Q4-26 data. Although the feasibility study excludes downstream rights and obligations, it provides the partner with privileged early visibility into circVec’s CNS performance, consistent with how such studies typically pre-position counterparties for licensing engagement.
The progression also takes place against an active sector backdrop. Most directly comparable is Sangamo’s 2024 licensing of its STAC-BBB CNS-targeting AAV capsid platform to Roche (USD 50m upfront, USD 1.95bn total), a preclinical CNS deal that mirrors Circio’s therapeutic area. Eli Lilly’s 2025 agreement with MeiraGTx (USD 75m upfront / USD 400m milestones, AAV expression platform in ophthalmology) provides a further relevant benchmark. Against this backdrop, strong Q4-26 CNS data would strengthen Circio’s position in the subsequent licensing discussions, particularly with the existing partner, which by then would hold privileged early insight into circVec’s CNS performance, while also broadening the platform’s appeal to other large pharmaceutical players.
In summary, Analyst Group views the progression to in vivo testing as a positive incremental milestone that confirms the collaboration is advancing on schedule and that the partner remains committed to evaluating circVec in CNS. The Q4-26 Partnered project update remains the more strategically decisive event for the collaboration and, by extension, for Analyst Group’s modelled first AAV-circVec licensing agreement, with the in vivo step serving as the necessary technical bridge to that readout. With the financial runway secured into 2030 following the recently completed NOK 250m private placement, Circio is also positioned to enter any subsequent licensing discussions from a position of strength rather than financial pressure, providing a strong foundation for the negotiations to come.
