Uppföljning på Ayima Q3-rapport 2018

Fokus inför rapport

Lönsamheten – kan bolaget uppnå ett break even-resultat?

Framtida tillväxtförutsättningar

Utvecklingen av Leapthree

Under det tredje kvartalet uppgick omsättningen till cirka 54,9 MSEK, motsvarande en tillväxt om 43,8 %. Detta var något lägre än tidigare publicerade preliminära försäljningssiffror om 57,9 MSEK. Affärsområdet SEO bidrog med en omsättning om 21,8 MSEK, medan Paid Media stod för 30,6 MSEK. LeapThree, som nu redovisas under ”Data & Analytics”, bidrog med en omsättning om 0,4 MSEK under perioden. Detta förklaras av att LeapThree integrerades i verksamheten under mitten av september, vilket representerar en halv månad av perioden. I helhet stod SEO för 43 % av omsättningen, medan Paid media stod för 55 %. SEO är dock fortsatt Bolagets snabbast växande segment, och på längre sikt estimerar Analyst Group att SEO och Paid Media kommer stå för ungefär lika stor del av omsättningen.

Lönsamheten var något högre än våra estimat. Bruttomarginalen uppgick under Q3 till 44,8 %, vilket var sämre än estimerade 50,3 %. Bolaget vägde dock upp för den lägre bruttomarginalen, då både personalkostnaderna och de övriga rörelsekostnaderna var lägre än vad vi estimerat. Personalkostnaderna uppgick till 16,9 MSEK (estimerat 19,4), och de övriga rörelsekostnaderna uppgick till 5,7 MSEK (estimerat 9,3). Detta förklaras primärt av att en majoritet av Bolagets bruttokostnader också är hänförliga till outsourcad personal, vilket innebär att skillnaderna i helhet beror på redovisningstekniska frågor, även om de övriga rörelsekostnaderna var lägre än våra förväntningar. Summerat presenterade Bolaget ett EBIT-resultat om 1,5 MSEK, vilket var bättre än estimerade 0,5 MSEK.

Om vi blickar framåt – hur ser Bolaget på framtiden och utvecklingen av LeapThree?

Precis som i tidigare rapporter påpekar Bolaget att de framgent förväntar sig en förbättrad rörelsemarginal som en naturlig konsekvens av rådande omsättningstillväxt. Bolaget ser inga anledningar att arbeta med kostnadsbesparingar i syfte att förbättra marginalerna för tillfället, just eftersom omsättningstillväxt är Ayimas primära fokus. Bolaget förväntar sig att tillväxttrenden kommer fortsätta, där den nordamerikanska verksamheten pekas ut som särskilt lovande.

Bolaget har under kvartalet integrerat LeapThree i koncernen. VD Mike Jacobson skriver att Digital Analytics är ett perfekt komplement till de huvudsakliga verksamhetsområdena, och att det är en sektor med särskilt lovande tillväxtförutsättningar. Vidare påpekas att integrationen av förvärvet har varit problemfri, och Ayima redan ser spännande möjligheter för korsförsäljning inom den befintliga kundbasen, vilket möjliggör omfattande tillväxt inom området Data & Analytics. Detta ses som positivt, och kommentarerna förstärker vår bild av att Leapthree kommer bidra med spännande möjligheter.

Vi kommer inom kort att återkomma med en uppdaterad aktieanalys av Ayima.

Intervju med VD Mike Jacobson

Can you tell us a bit more about the integration of LeapThree and the cross-selling opportunities that you see in your current customer base?

Ayima specialises in Digital Marketing optimisation and that is an extremely data reliant activity – without good data feedback, it is impossible to measure and improve ROI from advertising activities.

We have identified that many of our large clients are underperforming because their data is not of a high enough quality, whether that be due to poor data collection from incorrect tagging and Analytics set up, or poor data access and reporting due to lack of skills in the organisation. Traditionally, data and analytics was considered more of a finance function than a marketing one and so not enough resource has been given to setting up and improving marketing data quality. As we are now fully immersed in the digital age, this balance is shifting and organisations are realising just how much data is available and how that data can be utilised to drive performance in real time. Hence we have seen a massively increased demand for data and analytics services in order to fully optimise the huge budgets that have been assigned to digital activities such as PPC and display advertising in particular.

Would you say that LeapThree can contribute to you landing customers that you couldn’t land before the acquisition?

Yes in two ways. Firstly Leapthree brought with them some excellent clients that we have already begun to cross-sell Ayima’s other services to. Secondly, prospective clients have been including data and analytics requirements on their briefs and RFPs for some time now, so having a specialist Analytics agency in our group is indeed a great USP.

The gross margin was significantly lower than in previous quarters. Is this a result of you outsourcing a larger part of your operations?

Seasonally, yes. Q3 is now showing a higher seasonal trend due to a few of our large retail clients planning massive omni-channel campaigns in the same period and these often involve specialist services such as PR and video. As this boost of activity is sporadic, we do not consider that these are services that Ayima needs to build it’s own competencies in at the current time so for now we will outsource to partner agencies. Gross margin will be back to normal in Q4.

You recently announced a new 7 million contract in the Igaming sector. The Igaming sector is obviously exciting at this time with the current global re-regulations, in the UK as well as in the US. Would you say that these re-regulations benefits Ayima?

Yes because new markets are becoming regulated and therefore media platforms such as Facebook and Google are going to be allowing advertising for gaming companies in those new markets. Ayima is one of the few media agencies with a license to advertise gaming in New Jersey, so that should lead to good business for Ayima – also our presence in Sweden as an agency with such a long track record in the gaming sector should see us in a good position locally. In the UK the issue is a bit more complicated as advertising activity has long been regulated but the recent changes may have caused the large gaming firms to look to invest in less established markets. Either way it is good for us.

In the last year, you have had a lot of success in growing Ayima. What would you say is crucial going forward in order to maintain the positive growth trend?

Yes our sales growth has been consistent and almost precisely to plan. So that has been a very pleasing result. Obviously as we are now 50% bigger than we were last year, we need to step up activity in order to maintain the same rate of growth. Most of our prospective clients are very large companies that move slowly and this has been a hindrance when it comes to boosting our growth rate. Hence we are looking specifically into two main areas to find that boost – firstly the cross selling potential of the new services we can offer through the recent acquisition of Leapthree. It is easier to sell in a new service to a long-term loyal client than it is to find and sign an entirely new client. Secondly, our Nth American operation is where we will be looking to in order find increased growth. The sheer size of the market in the US makes it by far the easiest place to grow – and additionally we find that the sales and procurement process in the US is often shorter and less burdensome than it is in Europe. So we will be looking to increase our sales and marketing efforts in Nth America in particular.

Of course we have mentioned publicly that we are still on the lookout for potential acquisition targets. Our main criteria is for specialist agencies that are profitable, growing rapidly and that have complimentary services that we can cross-sell to our existing client base in order to accelerate that growth.