Comment on Zenith’s Solar Acquisition and Gas Supply Growth


Zenith Energy Ltd. (“Zenith” or the “Company”) announced on March 5, 2026, that the Company has acquired an additional photovoltaic development project located in the Puglia region of Italy with an expected installed capacity of approximately 10 MWp. The acquisition forms part of the Company’s broader strategy to expand its Italian solar development pipeline beyond 200 MWp by the end of 2026. The project remains in the development stage and is expected to reach Ready-to-Build (“RTB”) status by February 2027. The agreed consideration for the project amounts to EUR 1.05 m and will only be payable upon the successful completion of the development process and the achievement of RTB status.

Following the acquisition, Zenith’s solar development portfolio has increased to approximately 135.5 MWp across several Italian regions including Piedmont, Lazio, Liguria and Puglia. The Company has also secured land sufficient to accommodate an integrated 4 MW Battery Energy Storage System (“BESS”) at the newly acquired site, which may allow the project to optimize electricity dispatch and enhance grid stability.

In addition to the solar acquisition, Zenith announced the decision to recommence production at the Sant’Andrea gas field in Italy. Once reactivated, the field is expected to produce approximately 40,000 cubic metres of natural gas per month, equivalent to roughly 480,000 cubic metres annually, with production sold through the Italian national grid.


Analyst Group’s View and Conclusion

Analyst Group views the acquisition of the Puglia photovoltaic project as a continued demonstration of Zenith’s ability to expand its Italian solar development pipeline at a rapid pace. The increase of the portfolio to approximately 135.5 MWp represents meaningful progress toward the Company’s stated objective of exceeding 200 MWp by the end of 2026. At the same time, the restart of the Sant’Andrea gas field demonstrates Zenith’s ability to capture value from existing energy infrastructure in response to evolving natural gas and electricity price dynamics in Europe.

Together, these developments reinforce Zenith’s position as a diversified European energy company with exposure to both renewable power generation and natural gas production. In the current market environment, characterized by heightened geopolitical tensions, energy security concerns and volatile commodity prices, such a diversified energy portfolio provides strategic flexibility and exposure to favorable pricing dynamics.

Beyond the operational developments described above, it should also be noted that Zenith is approaching a significant milestone in the ongoing ICSID arbitration against the Republic of Tunisia. The final hearing is scheduled for April 2026, and the Company has recently strengthened its legal team ahead of this stage. With an updated claim amount of approximately USD 572.65 m, the arbitration represents a potentially material financial catalyst. In Analyst Group’s view, the convergence of rising European energy prices, accelerating solar pipeline execution, and the approaching ICSID final hearing in April 2026 represents a set of meaningful near-term catalysts which, together with the Company’s expected operational pipeline during 2026, support an attractive risk-reward profile.

Analyst Group’s View on Solar Pipeline Expansion and Gas Market Positioning

The acquisition of an additional 10 MWp photovoltaic development project in Puglia represents another incremental step in Zenith’s strategy of rapidly expanding its Italian solar platform. Since mid-2025, the Company has systematically built a diversified pipeline of development-stage solar assets across several Italian regions, and the latest acquisition increases the total pipeline capacity to approximately 135.5 MWp. This trajectory reflects a clear strategic objective: to scale the portfolio toward a capacity exceeding 200 MWp by the end of 2026.

From an industry perspective, development-stage solar pipelines represent a key value driver in the renewable energy sector. The intrinsic value of such pipelines typically increases as projects progress through permitting, grid-connection approvals and engineering milestones toward Ready-to-Build status. Zenith’s strategy to selectively monetize certain RTB assets while constructing others internally creates a dual-track value creation model. On one hand, divestments of mature development assets can generate near-term capital inflows and recycle capital into new projects. On the other hand, internally developed projects can generate stable, long-term electricity revenues once operational.

Another relevant feature of the project is the planned integration of a Battery Energy Storage System (“BESS”). Storage solutions are becoming increasingly important within the Italian electricity market, where intraday power prices can fluctuate significantly due to intermittent renewable generation and demand variability. The ability to store electricity during lower-price periods and dispatch it during peak-price hours can improve project economics while also contributing to grid stability. In southern Italy, where solar irradiation levels typically range between 1,800 and 2,000 kWh/m² per year, projects in regions such as Puglia generally benefit from strong production profiles relative to many other European markets.

In parallel with the solar expansion, the decision to recommence production at the Sant’Andrea gas field illustrates Zenith’s opportunistic approach to energy market dynamics. Zenith cites expectations of rising natural gas and electricity prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, as the primary rationale for recommencing production. European benchmark gas prices (TTF) have risen sharply following the escalation of geopolitical tensions in early March 2026, with prices moving meaningfully above recent trading ranges. The current pricing environment reflects elevated risk premiums associated with supply uncertainty, and several market participants have also highlighted the potential for prices to move materially higher should geopolitical risks escalate further, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” pricing environment for European gas. In this context, Zenith’s decision to reactivate the Sant’Andrea field appears well-timed.

With an expected production volume of approximately 480,000 cubic metres per year, the Sant’Andrea field represents a relatively modest asset in absolute terms. However, the strategic relevance lies in Zenith’s ability to rapidly reactivate existing production capacity and capture favorable price movements within the Italian gas-to-power market.

Taken together, the combination of solar pipeline expansion and the reactivation of gas production highlights Zenith’s hybrid energy strategy in Italy. The solar portfolio represents a scalable, long-duration growth platform, while the gas-to-electricity segment provides exposure to shorter-term power price dynamics. In Analyst Group’s view, this dual structure allows the Company to both build long-term renewable capacity and remain flexible in responding to cyclical movements in European energy markets.