On December 4th ODI Pharma provided an update regarding Poland’s expanding medical cannabis market. The market remains an important focus of the company’s strategy – recent regulatory changes, where Polish Główny Inspektor Farmaceutyczny (Chief Pharmaceutical Inspectorate or ”GIF”) increased the total amount of medical cannabis permitted to be imported into Poland from 6 tons to approx. 11.3 tons, indicates that the market is one of the fastest-growing and most exciting within medical cannabis in Europe.
ODI Pharma has an exclusive collaboration agreement with Synoptis Pharma, part of the NEUCA Group, a leading player in the country’s healthcare distribution sector. The agreement states that ODI Pharma will be the exclusive supply partner for medical cannabis products to Synoptis in 23 countries in Eastern Europe for a period of 5 years, with an additional optional 3.5-year extension. Through this agreement, ODI Pharma achieved net sales of SEK 22.4m and a positive net result in the fiscal year 2023/2024. Moreover, during the calendar year 2024, ODI Pharma reached its previously set goal of achieving a market share above 10%.
Going into 2025, the import quota has recently been raised by 88%, which demonstrates rapid market growth. Moreover, we estimate that ODI Pharma can increase its market share through Synoptis’s strong brand. We expect doctors and patients in Poland to prioritize a well-known local brand ahead of other international brands, which is therefore estimated to drive strong revenue growth for ODI Pharma.
Based on a conservative assumption that ODI Pharma reaches 12% market share of the 11.3 tons in 2025, this would correspond to sales amounting to approximately 1.4 tons. The market price for medical cannabis based on dried flowers in Poland is approximately EUR 13-16 per gram for patients when purchased at pharmacies.
ODI Pharma is currently conducting a rights issue, allowing investors to subscribe to shares at a price of SEK 3.22 per share, corresponding to a pre-money valuation of SEK 49m. Based on our estimate in the latest equity research update of SEK 95.7 million for the fiscal year 2025/2026, which spans July to June, this valuation corresponds to a P/S multiple of 0.5x, which Analyst Group considers to be low given ODI Pharma’s position as a supplier to a market-leading pharmaceutical brand in a rapidly growing market, coupled with a scalable business model expected to create conditions for improved profitability going forward. Given this, Analyst Group considers that the rights issue offers a compelling risk/reward opportunity for investors.
