Zenith Energy Ltd. (“Zenith” or the “Company”) announced on Monday, September 22, 2025, that its fully owned UK subsidiaries have filed their final submissions in the ongoing arbitration against the Republic of Tunisia under the rules of the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). The arbitration, initiated in June 2023, is grounded in Tunisia’s alleged violations of the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) signed with the United Kingdom in 1989.
In connection with the final submission, Zenith disclosed an upward revision of its total claimed damages, from the previously communicated USD 503M to USD 572.65M. This revaluation reflects communicated additional breaches and extended operational obstructions, assessed by TWCOG LLP, an expert oil & gas arbitration firm, in collaboration with Chapman Petroleum Engineering. The final hearings are expected to take place in April 2026.
Analyst Group’s View on the ICSID Final Submission
The final submission in the ICSID arbitration marks a step in what is the most strategically significant legal process in Zenith’s history. The Company has now completed the written phase of proceedings, having formally quantified its updated claim at USD 572.65M, an increase of approximately 14 % from previously communicated claim. This upward revision materially strengthens the case’s investment relevance and signals legal confidence ahead of the 2026 hearings.
Analyst Group views the increased claim not merely as a legal escalation, but as a refined representation of cumulative damages tied to expropriated assets, unpaid oil deliveries, operational disruptions, and the loss of multi-decade licenses in Sidi El Kilani and Ezzaouia. The fact that the reassessment was conducted by TWCOG LLP, a specialist with over 60 international disputes and 50 expert testimonies, including multiple ICSID cases, adds weight and credibility to the updated valuation. Moreover, TWCOG’s methodology has been corroborated through collaboration with Chapman, Zenith’s longstanding reserves auditor.
The ICSID arbitration stands apart from Zenith’s prior ICC proceedings due to its treaty-based nature under international public law, which typically involves larger claims, sovereign respondents, and stricter procedural frameworks. The involvement of Clay Arbitration and Charles Russell Speechlys (Paris), led by Professor Thomas Clay and Maître Simon Le Wita respectively, provides additional procedural strength. While outcomes in treaty-based arbitrations remain binary in nature, Analyst Group estimates a 68 % probability of a favorable result, based on historical ICSID data and comparative legal precedent.
Analyst Group’s View on Zenith as an Investment
Zenith enters this final phase of the ICSID arbitration at a time when the Company continues to execute on its broader strategic objectives, including:
- A rapidly expanding solar energy portfolio in Italy, now totaling 64.5 MWp, with expectations of surpassing 100 MWp before year-end 2025.
- A profitable core business centered on gas-to-electricity production, providing recurring cash flow to support operations.
- An active secondary legal process via the ICC-2 annulment application, filed with the Swiss Federal Court, which could reopen a dismissed USD 130M claim.
- A recently launched listing on the Spotlight Stock Market in Sweden, aimed at broadening the investor base and enhancing access to Nordic capital markets, with a subscription price of SEK 0.45 per SDR and a subscription period running until 23 September.
Together, these elements supports a attractive risk–reward profile where the core business provides operational resilience, and the ICSID arbitration acts as a substantial upside catalyst.
