Scalability Becomes Visible
Nosa Plugs AB (”Nosa Plugs” or the ”Company”) is a medical technology company that has developed intranasal breathing products for applications such as odor protection and olfactory training, achieving strong historical growth with a 38% CAGR between 2019-2025. With an estimated continued high growth rate, a positive EBITDA result during year 2026, driven by organic growth, economies of scale, and the acquisition of Nozoil, as well as a high-potential development project in Drug Delivery, Analyst Group identifies revaluation potential in Nosa Plugs. Based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, a combined potential present value per share of SEK 1.24 (SEK 1.24) is derived in a Base scenario.
- Revenue Exceeded Estimates, 2026 Targets Abandoned
Revenue amounted to SEK 10.2m (3.7) in Q3-26, corresponding to growth of 180%, above our estimate of SEK 9.6m, driven by B2B in the Nordics and the start of the winter season for Nozoil. At the same time, the Company abandoned its 2026 financial target of SEK 50m in revenue, which was already above Analyst Group’s estimate, while the 2027–2028 targets of 25% organic growth remain. We expect continued strong momentum in the Nordics and launches on new markets, but the delay of launches in new markets such as the Middle East are the main uncertainties, leading us to adopt a somewhat more cautious forecast for Q4-26 and into 2027.
- First Clear Evidence of Operating Leverage
EBITDA amounted to SEK 1.8m, corresponding to an adjusted margin of 15%, which confirms Analyst Group’s thesis of operating leverage in the business model. The Company has been able to add Nozoil sales to a low cost base, with external costs decreasing compared with the prior year despite marketing initiatives carried out. Although the 2026 target of a 15% EBITDA margin was abandoned, the development points toward the long term targets, with Analyst Group estimating an EBITDA margin of approximately 22% in the seasonally strong Q4-26 and 17% in 2027, close to the target of at least 18%.
- Progress Within Cerevia, Agreement in 2026 Less Likely
The Company has completed successful production tests of a self-selected molecule within NOSA Cerevia, where the next step is in vivo and in vitro tests ahead of a presentation to a pharmaceutical company, while dialogues with two larger pharmaceutical companies continue. According to the CEO, an agreement in 2026 is considered less likely, but several of the processes are expected to reach a stage within six to nine months where more can be communicated.
- Unchanged Valuation in a Base Scenario
The outcome was slightly above Analyst Group’s expectations, while uncertainty regarding the delayed launch in the Middle East motivates a somewhat more cautious view of Q4-26. Overall, an unchanged potential present value per share of SEK 1.24 (1.24) is derived in a Base scenario, with a range of SEK 0.40-1.82 (0.39-1.88).
