Global Validation Broadens the Growth Base
Genetic Analysis AS (”Genetic Analysis” or ”the Company”) has developed the GA-map®, a platform for diagnostic analysis of microbiomes — the collection of microorganisms in the body that support digestion, immunity, and overall health. The human microbiome market is growing fast, as its importance for health has been increasingly recognized, yet the field has so far lacked standardization. The GA-map® platform aims to standardize microbiome diagnostics, which is expected to generate high long-term sales growth with a CAGR of 30% from 2025-2028. With an applied EV/S multiple of 2.0x on 2027’s estimated sales of NOK 29.1m and a discount rate of 11.7%, a potential present value per share of NOK 0.84 (0.94) is derived in a Base scenario.
- Softer Quarter Against a Demanding Comparable
Genetic Analysis reported net sales of NOK 5.3m (5.9) in Q2-26, a decline of 10.2%, or 4.0% in constant currency, against a comparable quarter that grew 34%. Reagent kit sales, the core recurring business, rose 4.5% in constant currency, with the decline driven by currency and the timing of pharma-related testing. European sales grew 35.3% to 41% (27%) of the total, broadening the revenue base.
- Peer-Reviewed Evidence Opens New Markets
A study published in Gut Microbes demonstrated that the GA-map® Dysbiosis Test performs consistently across geographically diverse populations, and a first Australian placement communicated in August illustrates how documented global applicability translates into installations outside established markets. As the only standardized diagnostic in the field, the GA-map® is expected to be installed in both new and existing markets, driving sales towards estimated revenue of NOK 37m in 2028, resulting in a CAGR of 30% from 2025.
- Underlying Gross Margin Held
The gross margin amounted to 91.2% (73.7) in Q2-26, lifted by an accrued refund of US duties paid during 2025, and adjusted for the refund to 72.5%, broadly in line with last year. Norwegian goods are since late July subject to a tariff of 12.5%, why margin pressure is assessed to persist in the US, although the rising European share of sales is expected to reduce the aggregate impact on the total gross margin.
- Revised Estimates and Valuation Range
Analyst Group has lowered the sales estimates following H1-26, where currency headwinds and weaker service revenue weigh, and where the USD has depreciated further since the end of the quarter, assumed at current rates to affect Q3-26 to a similar extent as Q2-26. The gross margin estimate for 2026 is raised for the non-recurring refund, and by one percentage point for 2027 and 2028 given the higher European share of sales. Combined with a somewhat higher underlying cost base, the valuation range is revised to NOK 0.30 – 1.10 (0.34 – 1.29), with the Base scenario at NOK 0.84 (0.94).
