Nosa Plugs Q3-25

Setback in Growth Curve but Long-Term Potential Remains Intact

Nosa Plugs AB (”Nosa Plugs” or the ”Company”) is a medical technology company that has developed intranasal breathing products for applications such as odor protection and olfactory training, achieving strong historical growth with a 36% CAGR between 2019-2024. With an estimated continued high growth rate, a positive EBITDA result from late 2025, and a high-potential development project in Drug Delivery aimed at administering pharmaceuticals via the nose, Analyst Group sees revaluation potential in Nosa Plugs. Through a sum-of-the-parts valuation of the Company’s existing product portfolio and Nosa Drug Delivery, a potential price per share of SEK 1.38 (1.51) is derived in a Base scenario.

• Setback in the Growth Curve

Q3-25 represented a setback in Nosa Plugs growth trajectory, as revenue amounted to SEK 3.7m (4.3), corresponding to a decrease of 16%. Revenue was negatively affected by delayed orders that typically occur in Q3 but were received at the beginning of Q4 this year. At the same time, a phase-out of the Allergy Filter product has been initiated due to costly and inefficient production. Sales were also impacted by the cost-saving measures implemented earlier in 2025 to strengthen profitability, resulting in reduced sales and marketing activities, which now constrains sales more than previously expected.

• Recovery Estimated in the Coming Quarter

We had not anticipated a sales decline in Q3-25 and has therefore slightly adjusted our sales estimates, while expecting a recovery in Q4-25 through deferred sales from Q3 to Q4 and an increase in the Company’s sales activities, which are already reported to have had an effect. The Company is still assessed to have a loyal and recurring customer base, expected to generate stable cash flows. The phase-out of Allergy Filter is expected to impact sales in the coming quarter; however, the product is assessed to have historically represented a minor share of revenue. Overall, the Company is estimated to return to positive organic growth in Q4-25, which will also mark the first full quarter with the Nozoil acquisition included in the figures, adding further growth as well as expected extracted synergies and thereby a reported positive EBITDA result.

• Revised Valuation

Following the Q3 report, estimates regarding Core Business have been updated, as the lower growth compared to expectations along with the phase-out of Allergy Filter results in a downward revision of growth estimates. Combined with multiple contraction among peers, this leads to a lowered derived valuation of Core Business to SEK 0.54 per share (0.61) in a Base scenario. Regarding Drug Delivery, the estimated market launch has been marginally postponed, taking into account that a commercial partnership agreement with a pharmaceutical company is now estimated for early year 2026 rather than late year 2025, resulting in a derived value per share of SEK 0.84 (0.89) in a Base scenario.