Nosa Plugs

Nosa Plugs AB (”Nosa Plugs” or the ”Company”) is a medical technology company that has developed intranasal breathing products for applications such as odor protection and olfactory training, achieving strong historical growth with a 38% CAGR between 2019-2025. With an estimated continued high growth rate, a positive EBITDA result during year 2026, driven by organic growth, economies of scale, and the acquisition of Nozoil, as well as a high-potential development project in Drug Delivery, Analyst Group identifies revaluation potential in Nosa Plugs. Based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, a combined potential present value per share of SEK 1.24 (SEK 1.27) is derived in a Base scenario.

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• Growth of 81% and Launches Paving the Way for H2

Net sales amounted to SEK 8.8m (4.9) in Q2-26, growth of 81%, driven by both organic growth and the acquisition of Nozoil, where B2B grew 26% against a tough comparison quarter. The outcome was below estimate, attributable to B2C, where seasonal variations within Nozoil complicate quarterly assessments. H2-26 is expected to be a seasonally stronger period, combined with launches in France, Norway and Benelux, among others, and a communicated strong order book. Analyst Group lowers the 2026 full year estimate to SEK 42.7m (43.8), given that Q2-26 fell short of our estimate of SEK 11.6m, but raises the estimated growth rate from 2027 given momentum in the Company’s launches on new markets.

• Operating Leverage Expected to Lift Margins

EBITDA amounted to SEK -0.3m, but adjusted for costs of a one off nature related to the technical file for Nozoil, the result was SEK 0.6m, meaning the underlying cost base was lower than estimated. According to the Company, most of these costs are now taken and are not expected to burden coming quarters to a corresponding extent. The gross margin also strengthened for the second consecutive quarter, driven by product mix. Given continued high growth against a cost base expected to grow more slowly, Analyst Group estimates an EBITDA margin of 10% in 2026, rising to 16% in 2027, where the operating leverage in the business model is assessed to become clearly visible.

• Broader Cerevia Pipeline and Updated Valuation

During the quarter, the Company developed a proprietary pharmaceutical database, Drug Screener, in which approximately 3,000 drugs are assessed to be compatible with the technology, broadening the number of potential partners. Two dialogues with pharmaceutical companies are ongoing, while an earlier dialogue has been paused, making the timeline to an agreement difficult to assess. Analyst Group has therefore slightly postponed the modelled commercialization, whereby NOSA Cerevia is valued at SEK 0.71 (0.74) per share, while Core Business is unchanged at SEK 0.53, now with the EV/S multiple applied to 2027. In aggregate, a potential present value per share of SEK 1.24 (1.27) is derived in a Base scenario, with a range of SEK 0.39 to 1.88 (0.42 to 1.92).