Analyst Group

Polight

VD: – · Styrelseordförande: –

Comment on poLight’s Q3-26 Report

Analytikerkommentar

2026-10-29·David RimbeDavid Rimbe·Polight

poLight ASA (“poLight” or “the Company”) published on October 29, 2026, the Company’s quarterly report for the third quarter of 2026. The quarter was characterized by continued high activity within consumer AR/MR programs, and in the report the Company communicates that a second consumer AR/MR case has been defined as a design-in after the end of the quarter. Total revenues of NOK 4.9m were in line with our expectations of a softer third quarter. The CEO also reiterated the hope that 2026 may become the year in which poLight technology starts shipping in a commercially available consumer AR/MR product. The following are some key financial metrics that we have chosen to highlight in connection with the report:

  • Total revenues of NOK 4.9m (5.0) in Q3-26, corresponding to a YoY decrease of approximately 3%, consisting entirely of sale of goods
  • Gross profit of NOK 1.6m (2.6), corresponding to a gross margin of approximately 33%, burdened by a NOK 1.2m inventory obsolescence provision
  • EBITDA of NOK -28.9m (-29.1), including NOK 5.5m in share option-related expenses; EBITDA ex share options amounted to NOK -23.4m (-21.8)
  • Cash position of NOK 224.6m at the close of the quarter (NOK 243.7m at the end of Q2-26)

Summary

poLight delivered a Q3-26 report in line with the trajectory outlined in our preview comment, with a softer third quarter ahead of a second half weighted toward the end of the year. Revenue of NOK 4.9m came in above communicated orders with stated Q3-26 delivery, supported by a continued underlying delivery base, although no NRE revenue was recognized during the quarter. For the first nine months, revenues amounted to NOK 25.4m (11.8). This corresponds to an increase of approximately 115% and is already well above the full-year 2025 level of NOK 20.5m.

The most important development during the quarter is that poLight now has two consumer AR/MR cases classified as design-ins. The first case was classified in July, and its latest purchase order was placed as a mass production order for a product that may be launched in the relatively near future. In addition, the Company states that a new consumer AR/MR case was defined as a design-in post-quarter, and that a TLens® follow-on purchase order of approximately NOK 0.5m for material to be used for final qualification has been received by the Company’s distributor. In our view, this marks a meaningful broadening of the Company’s late-stage consumer exposure and a clear step toward 2027 becoming an inflection point for poLight. In parallel, the first camera modules under the October 2025 project with a top-tier U.S. consumer electronics OEM showed initial test results in line with expectations.

The cost base developed somewhat better than our expectations, with underlying operating expenses declining QoQ and remaining broadly in line YoY, while the gross margin on sale of goods excluding the obsolescence provision remained stable at approximately 57%. With a cash position of NOK 224.6m, poLight retains meaningful financial flexibility to remain in execution mode ahead of the anticipated commercial phase.

Second Consumer AR/MR Design-In Strengthens the Late-Stage Pipeline Ahead of 2027

poLight’s consumer AR/MR pipeline took another important step after the end of the quarter. In the report, the Company communicates that one new consumer AR/MR case is now defined as a design-in. Post-quarter, a TLens® follow-on purchase order worth approximately NOK 0.5m for material to be used for final qualification has also been received by the Company’s distributor. As polight’s CEO Øyvind Isaksen notes in the interim report, several consumer AR/MR cases are maturing, with two cases now regarded as design-ins. Supporting the anticipated ramp, the Company reports relatively high activity levels at its assembly partners due to increased demand and continued efforts to establish the TLens® assembly line at Q Tech, while MEMS wafer inventory levels are described as comfortable.

Analyst Group views the development as significant. poLight has historically applied a cautious approach when classifying its customer programs. The current report illustrates this as well, with an iris-related design-in and a PoC removed due to a lack of progress over several quarters, and a new design-in classification therefore carries considerable weight. The progression is also consistent with the Company’s previous communication, where several consumer AR/MR cases have been described as maturing, and the fact that this is now materializing strengthens the credibility of the Company’s outlook. Furthermore, the development coincides with a supportive market backdrop, where leading OEMs are broadening their camera-equipped glasses line-ups and where, according to the Company, autofocus capability appears to be on the roadmap for several AR/MR players, with an increasing number of OEMs indicating this direction.

According to management, the second case relates to another consumer glasses product with a somewhat longer time horizon than the first design-in, and a design-in does not constitute a formal design-win or volume commitment. Nevertheless, moving from one to two consumer AR/MR design-ins within a few months represents, in our view, a tangible de-risking of the Company’s primary value driver and supports our view that 2027 will mark the inflection point in poLight’s commercial development.

Revenue Outcome in Line with a Back-End Loaded Second Half

During the third quarter of 2026, poLight reported total revenues of NOK 4.9m (5.0). This corresponds to a YoY decrease of approximately 3% and a QoQ decrease of approximately 47% versus NOK 9.1m in Q2-26. Revenue consisted entirely of sale of goods, compared to NOK 3.7m in rendering of services in Q2-26, and the absence of NRE revenue explains the majority of the sequential decline. Sale of goods amounted to NOK 4.9m, compared to NOK 5.4m in Q2-26. AR/MR accounted for more than 50% of quarterly revenue, industrial for just over 30% and healthcare for approximately 15%.

As highlighted in our preview comment, communicated orders with stated Q3-26 delivery amounted to approximately NOK 0.8m. A further approximately NOK 1.9m carried delivery windows during H2-26 or September/October, and the reported outcome came in above these levels. For the last twelve months (LTM), total revenues amounted to NOK 34.1m, compared to NOK 34.2m in the LTM period ended Q2-26.

poLight’s CEO notes in the interim report that the progress within consumer AR/MR “brings hope that 2026 may become the year in which poLight technology starts shipping in a commercially available consumer AR|MR product”. Combined with the delivery of the latest mass production order for the first design-in, scheduled for Q4-26, this supports our view that the second half will be weighted toward year-end. According to management, the customer has built inventory through the three mass production purchase orders ahead of a market release expected around the turn of the year. Analyst Group expects the design-in to be reclassified as a design-win in connection with the market release, followed by volume orders based on market demand. As the timing is ultimately determined by the customer, there is a meaningful probability that the main revenue contribution falls in early 2027 due to external factors. In our view, this would represent a timing effect rather than a change in the underlying opportunity. Regardless of the exact quarter, the transition from development-related revenues to volume deliveries under formal design-wins would represent the most significant commercial step in the Company’s development to date, with clearly improved revenue visibility going forward.

Underlying Product Margin Improves While the Cost Base Remains Stable

poLight reported COGS of NOK 2.1m (1.4) in Q3-26. Combined with an inventory obsolescence provision of NOK 1.2m (0.9), this resulted in a gross profit of NOK 1.6m (2.6), corresponding to a gross margin of approximately 33% (53%), compared to 48% in Q2-26. The sequential decline is primarily explained by the absence of high-margin NRE revenue, while the YoY decline reflects a higher COGS-to-revenue ratio. Excluding the obsolescence provision, the gross margin on sale of goods amounted to approximately 57%, compared to approximately 55% on the corresponding basis in Q2-26 according to the Company, indicating a stable underlying product margin. As product mix and delivery profiles vary between quarters, conclusions regarding the margin profile at higher volumes should be drawn with caution, and Analyst Group continues to place limited weight on individual quarterly margin data points ahead of a potential volume ramp.

EBITDA amounted to NOK -28.9m (-29.1). Operating expenses before depreciation and amortization decreased to NOK 30.5m (31.7). Excluding share option-related expenses, they amounted to NOK 25.0m (24.4), compared to NOK 27.3m on the corresponding basis in Q2-26. R&D expenses amounted to NOK 11.4m (12.3), sales and marketing expenses to NOK 5.9m (5.1), operational and supply chain expenses to NOK 7.6m (6.5) and administrative expenses to NOK 5.7m (7.7). Sales and marketing, operational and supply chain and administrative expenses all decreased QoQ. Part of the sequential decrease may reflect seasonal effects during the summer period. Even so, the development reflects solid cost control and was somewhat better than our expectations, particularly considering the high activity level across customer programs.

Share option-related expenses including employer’s NICs amounted to NOK 5.5m (7.3), where the lower vesting cost was partly offset by NOK 2.2m in higher NIC accruals following the share price appreciation during the quarter. Excluding share option-related expenses, EBITDA amounted to NOK -23.4m (-21.8), where the YoY difference is mainly explained by the lower gross profit. The CEO states that the Company is gradually strengthening capacity and capabilities across the organization. Analyst Group expects operating expenses to increase moderately going forward as poLight prepares for potential volume deliveries.

Cash Flow and Financial Position

As of 30 September 2026, poLight reported cash and cash equivalents of NOK 224.6m, compared to NOK 243.7m at the end of Q2-26. Net cash outflow from operating activities amounted to NOK 22.3m (-22.0). Net cash flows used in investing activities of NOK 2.5m primarily related to test and lab equipment. Financing activities contributed NOK 5.8m, mainly reflecting the exercise of share options in August. With a stable burn rate and a robust cash position, poLight retains meaningful financial flexibility through the transition toward commercial deliveries.

Broadening Pipeline Across TWedge® and Industrial Applications

At the end of the quarter, poLight reported 44 (44) design-wins and 6 (5) design-ins. A first design-in within industrial humanoid robotics and a design-in within healthcare were added, while an iris-related design-in was removed. Completed PoCs increased to 158 (149), while planning PoCs decreased to 36 (48), partly reflecting the removal of cases with limited progress. The post-quarter consumer AR/MR design-in is not yet included in the pipeline overview. In addition, two OEMs each placed smaller purchase orders worth approximately NOK 0.5m in support of two maturing PoCs, indicating continued depth behind the most advanced consumer cases.

The Company also addresses the ongoing debate around privacy and camera-equipped glasses, where some jurisdictions have discussed restrictions on glasses that can record video or take pictures. According to poLight, feedback from Tier 1 players indicates that cameras are generally considered desirable by many consumers, and that cameras used solely for sensing may also require autofocus. In our view, this implies that the relevance of TLens® is not limited to image capture, which supports the long-term opportunity within AR/MR even if regulation evolves.

Within TWedge®, purchase orders of approximately NOK 1.4m were received during the quarter (0.5m in Q2-26), and poLight has been informed post-quarter that a consumer OEM is processing a follow-on order of approximately NOK 1m. A small number of OEMs are now testing and qualifying TWedge®, and dialogue with one particular customer regarding the next development phase made progress during the quarter. In industrial, barcode-related order intake amounted to approximately NOK 0.8m (1.5m in Q2-26), while the first design-in within humanoid robotics marks an entry into a segment with significant long-term potential. Combined with continued progress in the lead-free TLens® project, poLight enters the final quarter of 2026 with an increasingly mature pipeline.

poLight will host its Capital Markets Day on October 30, 2026. In our view, it is an important event to follow, with expected further insight into the commercialization pathway of the consumer AR/MR programs, the readiness to support a potential volume ramp together with Q Tech and the Company’s technology roadmap. The conversion of the consumer AR/MR design-ins into formal design-wins and commercial product launches remains the principal value driver going forward.

We will return with an updated equity research report of poLight.

Besök bolagssida