Funded to Wait for the Right Deal
Circio Holding (”Circio” or ”the Company”) has taken a material step forward during 2026, with circVec demonstrating up to ~60x higher gene expression than conventional mRNA-based AAV in three separate tissues. In heart, the advantage has since been confirmed with a therapeutic protein, showing that it holds for a real drug payload and not only a laboratory marker. Moreover, Circio has raised ~NOK 820m during 2026, with an estimated runway into FY2030, and has entered into 23 strategic collaborations across gene and cell therapy. Several triggers lie ahead, including in vivo data for circVec 5.0 and its expected 200x advantage, the first AAV-circVec data in a relevant in vivo disease model, and in vivo results from the top-5 pharma collaboration in CNS. Together these are expected to strengthen the validated platform and reduce the technical risk a licensee would assume, which Analyst Group estimates will translate into a first licensing agreement during 2027. Based on a platform-focused rNPV framework, we derive NOK 10.3 (5.9) per share in a Base scenario.
- Validation Now Spans Three Tissues
In CNS, circVec-AAV has demonstrated 10–60x higher gene expression than mRNA-based AAV across three routes of administration, in line with heart (~40x) and eye (~50x). Consistency matters as much as the multiples, since three entry points producing the same effect points to a platform property rather than a protocol artefact. For a licensee, expression of this magnitude supports lower vector doses, and with them improved safety margins and lower manufacturing cost. Circio expects circVec 5.0 to exceed 200x, which would lower the required dose further. The fully funded top-5 pharma collaboration advanced into in vivo testing in April 2026, providing external validation of the platform. We estimate that forthcoming in vivo data will support a first licensing agreement during 2027, modelled at a total deal value of USD 750m.
- A Concentrated Set of Readouts Ahead
In cell therapy, what matters is not the level of expression but its duration. Conventional mRNA fades within days, which can be enough in autoimmune disease but rarely in oncology, whereas lentiviral vectors insert permanently into the DNA, carrying a risk of malignancy. circVec occupies the ground in between. During H1-26, spleen expression lasted over two months in a T-cell tropic LNP at one fifth of the previous dose, whereas the comparator was only detectable at the top dose. Since LNP tolerability is dose-dependent, this moves circVec closer to clinical relevance, with in vitro CAR expression in human T-cells as the next step toward a pharma collaboration in 2027.
- Revised Deal Dynamics Lift the Motivated Value
We raise the fair value across all scenarios, driven by upward revisions to deal dynamics and PoS on the back of a stronger cross-tissue data package. We also include a cell therapy transaction of USD 500m at a 40% probability in the Base scenario, supported by the NOK 200m placement (Sep 2026) dedicated to the in vivo CAR-T program, taking the motivated value to NOK 10.3 (5.9) per share. The share trades above our Base scenario, which we attribute to the market pricing the in vivo CAR opportunity closer to our Bull scenario (NOK 27).
