Panthera Resources

Asymmetric Upside Heading Into a 2026 Arbitration Hearing

Panthera Resources (“Panthera” or “the Company”) is a London-listed (AIM: PAT) natural resources company whose primary value driver is a USD 1.58bn arbitration claim against the Republic of India. The claim concerns the Bhukia gold deposit, which India is believed to have indirectly expropriated by obstructing the Company’s prospecting licence. The case is supported by top-ranked counsel that has already triumphed against India, a selective funder and management with a strong track record in arbitration. The Phase One Hearing in December 2026 is the principal near-term catalyst. Analyst Group estimates a 72.5% probability of a favourable ruling, based on win rates across comparable treaty claims and the merits of this case, which underpins a probability-weighted Base scenario equity value of USD 287m. The estimate reflects a risk-adjusted present value of the claim, not the value of Bhukia.

• A Valuable Claim at a Substantial Discount

Panthera’s market cap is only 4.7% of the USD 1.58bn arbitration claim against India. Analyst Group’s Base scenario equity value of USD 287m is 18% of that claim, or 15% of the USD 1.91bn claim once interest is accrued. The gap stands to narrow as the case advances through the Phase One Hearing in December 2026 towards a potential award.

• Strong Grounds Behind the Claim

Panthera’s USD 1.58bn arbitration claim against the Republic of India is filed under the Australia-India Bilateral Investment Treaty (“BIT”). The claim stems from India’s indirect expropriation of Bhukia, a gold deposit that India’s own Geological Survey has estimated at approximately 7.2 million ounces, corresponding to an in-ground value of approximately USD 29bn at the current spot price. India obstructed the prospecting licence over Bhukia through repeated delays, then changed the law to extinguish the preferential right to the licence, before auctioning the gold block to a domestic buyer in June 2024.

• Top Counsel, Litigation Funded and Proven Management

The claim is argued by King & Spalding, the world’s number one arbitration practice according to Global Arbitration Review. Panthera’s arbitration is funded by Litigation Capital Management (“LCM”), a funder with a 76% win rate across cases taken to conclusion, through a USD 13.6m facility. The team is led by CEO Mark Bolton, who brings experience from three prior international arbitrations, each resolved through a successful settlement.

• The Two Inputs That Drive the Investment Case

The present value of the claim is a probability-weighted, discounted value resting on two inputs. The first is the recovery rate, the share of the claim a tribunal awards, estimated at 40.4%. The second is the probability of success, the likelihood of an award in Panthera’s favour, estimated at 72.5%.